This chapter is from the book
This chapter is from the book
This chapter is from the book
Conclusion
Throughout this text you find what I believe to be a realistic and candid view of the commodity markets. My intention isn't to deter you from trading commodities. In fact, I am a broker that makes a living from commission and would love nothing more than to attract traders into what I believe to be some of the most exciting markets available to speculators. However, as a broker, it is also my job to ensure that you are aware of the potential hardships and, accordingly, will properly prepare yourself before putting your hard-earned money at risk.
If you walk away from this book with something, I hope it is the realization that anything is possible in the commodity markets. Never say never because if you do, you will eventually be proven wrong. Additionally, the markets, and trading them, is an art not a science. Unfortunately, there are no black–and-white answers nor are there fool-proof strategies—but that does not mean that there aren't opportunities.
I am often asked what is the best technical tool or indicator to use when speculating in a market. My answer is always the same; there isn't a "best tool," only a best way to use the tool. The paramount approach to any trading tool, whether technical, seasonal, or fundamental, is to use it—or better yet, a combination of a few—to form an educated opinion in your expectations of market price. With their findings, traders should approach the market with a degree of humbleness and with realistic expectations.
Remember, as a trader you compete against the market, specifically each participant in that particular market. Therefore, assuming that you can always beat the markets is assuming that you are somehow smarter and better informed than all other participants. Not only is this arrogant, it also might be financial suicide. Instead, you should approach every trade with modesty and with the understanding that you could be wrong. Having such an attitude might prevent you from sustaining large losses as the result of stubbornness or a lack of ability to admit to being incorrect in your speculation.
With that in mind, in its simplest form, trading is a zero sum game. Aside from commissions paid to the brokerage firm and fees paid to the exchange, for every dollar lost in the market, someone else has gained a dollar. Becoming a consistently profitable trader isn't easy, but it isn't synonymous with chasing the proverbial end of the rainbow either. With the proper background, hard work, and the experience that comes with inevitable tough lessons; long-term success is possible. I hope that this book will be the first step in your journey toward victory in the challenging, yet potentially rewarding, commodity markets.