Home > Store

Prescriptive Analytics: The Final Frontier for Evidence-Based Management and Optimal Decision Making

Register your product to gain access to bonus material or receive a coupon.

Prescriptive Analytics: The Final Frontier for Evidence-Based Management and Optimal Decision Making

Best Value Purchase

Book + eBook Bundle

  • Your Price: $56.79
  • List Price: $97.98
  • Includes EPUB and PDF
  • About eBook Formats
  • This eBook includes the following formats, accessible from your Account page after purchase:

    ePub EPUB The open industry format known for its reflowable content and usability on supported mobile devices.

    Adobe Reader PDF The popular standard, used most often with the free Acrobat® Reader® software.

    This eBook requires no passwords or activation to read. We customize your eBook by discreetly watermarking it with your name, making it uniquely yours.

More Purchase Options

Book

  • Your Price: $39.99
  • List Price: $49.99
  • Usually ships in 24 hours.

eBook (Watermarked)

  • Your Price: $38.39
  • List Price: $47.99
  • Includes EPUB and PDF
  • About eBook Formats
  • This eBook includes the following formats, accessible from your Account page after purchase:

    ePub EPUB The open industry format known for its reflowable content and usability on supported mobile devices.

    Adobe Reader PDF The popular standard, used most often with the free Acrobat® Reader® software.

    This eBook requires no passwords or activation to read. We customize your eBook by discreetly watermarking it with your name, making it uniquely yours.

About

Features

  • An end-to-end, holistic guide to theory and practice — packed with conceptual illustrations, example problems and solutions, and case studies
  • Covers optimization, simulation, multi-criteria decision-making methods, inference- and heuristic-based decisioning techniques, and more
  • Previews emerging techniques utilizing big data, deep learning, and cognitive computing
  • By Dr. Dursun Delen, one of the world’s leading experts in advanced business analytics

Description

  • Copyright 2020
  • Dimensions: 6" x 9"
  • Pages: 352
  • Edition: 1st
  • Book
  • ISBN-10: 0-13-438705-8
  • ISBN-13: 978-0-13-438705-5

Make Better Decisions, Leverage New Opportunities, and Automate Decisioning at Scale

Prescriptive analytics is more directly linked to successful decision-making than any other form of business analytics. It can help you systematically sort through your choices to optimize decisions, respond to new opportunities and risks with precision, and continually reflect new information into your decisioning process.

In Prescriptive Analytics, analytics expert Dr. Dursun Delen illuminates the field’s state-of-the-art methods, offering holistic insight for both professionals and students. Delen’s end-to-end, all-inclusive approach covers optimization, simulation, multi-criteria decision-making methods, inference- and heuristic-based decisioning, and more. Balancing theory and practice, he presents intuitive conceptual illustrations, realistic example problems, and real-world case studies–all designed to deliver knowledge you can use.

  • Discover where prescriptive analytics fits and how it improves decision-making
  • Identify optimal solutions for achieving an objective within real-world constraints
  • Analyze complex systems via Monte-Carlo, discrete, and continuous simulations
  • Apply powerful multi-criteria decision-making and mature expert systems and case-based reasoning
  • Preview emerging techniques based on deep learning and cognitive computing

Sample Content

Online Sample Chapter

Introduction to Business Analytics and Decision-Making

Table of Contents

Preface     xii
Chapter 1  Introduction to Business Analytics and Decision-Making     1
Data and Business Analytics     1
An Overview of the Human Decision-Making Process     4
    Simon’s Theory of Decision-Making     5
An Overview of Business Analytics     21
    Why the Sudden Popularity of Analytics?     22
    What Are the Application Areas of Analytics?     23
    What Are the Main Challenges of Analytics?     24
A Longitudinal View of Analytics     27
A Simple Taxonomy for Analytics     31
Analytics Success Story: UPS’s ORION Project     36
    Background     37
    Development of ORION     38
    Results     39
    Summary     40
Analytics Success Story: Man Versus Machine     40
    Checkers     41
    Chess     41
    Jeopardy!     42
    Go     42
    IBM Watson Explained     43
Conclusion     47
References     47
Chapter 2  Optimization and Optimal Decision-Making     49
Common Problem Types for LP Solution     51
Types of Optimization Models     52
    Linear Programming     52
    Integer and Mixed-Integer Programming     52
    Nonlinear Programming     53
    Stochastic Programming     54
Linear Programming for Optimization     55
    LP Assumptions     56
    Components of an LP Model     58
    Process of Developing an LP Model     59
    Hands-On Example: Product Mix Problem     60
    Formulating and Solving the Same Product-Mix Problem in Microsoft Excel     68
    Sensitivity Analysis in LP     72
Transportation Problem     76
    Hands-On Example: Transportation Cost Minimization Problem     76
    Network Models     81
Hands-On Example: The Shortest Path Problem     82
    Optimization Modeling Terminology     89
Heuristic Optimization with Genetic Algorithms     92
    Terminology of Genetic Algorithms     93
    How Do Genetic Algorithms Work?     95
    Limitations of Genetic Algorithms     97
    Genetic Algorithm Applications     98
Conclusion     98
References     99
Chapter 3  Simulation Modeling for Decision-Making     101
Simulation Is Based on a Model of the System     106
What Is a Good Simulation Application?     110
Applications of Simulation Modeling     111
Simulation Development Process     113
    Conceptual Design     114
    Input Analysis     114
    Model Development, Verification, and Validation     115
    Output Analysis and Experimentation     116
Different Types of Simulation     116
    Simulation May Be Dynamic (Time-Dependent) or Static (Time-Independent)     117
    Simulations May Be Stochastic or Deterministic     118
    Simulations May Be Discrete and Continuous     118
Monte Carlo Simulation     119
    Simulating Two-Dice Rolls     120
    Process of Developing a Monte Carlo Simulation     122
    Illustrative Example–A Business Planning Scenario     125
    Advantages of Using Monte Carlo Simulation     129
    Disadvantages of Monte Carlo Simulation     129
Discrete Event Simulation     130
    DES Modeling of a Simple System     131
    How Does DES Work?     135
    DES Terminology     138
System Dynamics     143
Other Varieties of Simulation Models     149
    Lookahead Simulation     149
    Visual Interactive Simulation Modeling     150
    Agent-Based Simulation     151
Advantages of Simulation Modeling     153
Disadvantages of Simulation Modeling     154
Simulation Software     155
Conclusion     158
References     159
Chapter 4  Multi-Criteria Decision-Making     161
Types of Decisions     164
A Taxonomy of MCDM Methods     165
    Weighted Sum Model     170
    Hands-On Example: Which Location Is the Best for Our Next Retail Store?     172
Analytic Hierarchy Process     173
    How to Perform AHP: The Process of AHP     176
    AHP for Group Decision-Making     184
    Hands-On Example: Buying a New Car/SUV     185
Analytics Network Process     190
    How to Conduct ANP: The Process of Performing ANP     194
Other MCDM Methods     201
    TOPSIS     202
    ELECTRE     202
    PROMETHEE     204
    MACBETH     205
Fuzzy Logic for Imprecise Reasoning     207
    Illustrative Example: Fuzzy Set for a Tall Person     208
Conclusion     210
References     210
Chapter 5  Decisioning Systems     213
Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems for Decision-Making     214
An Overview of Expert Systems     222
    Experts     222
    Expertise     223
    Common Characteristics of ES     224
Applications of Expert Systems     228
    Classical Applications of ES     228
    Newer Applications of ES     229
Structure of an Expert System     232
    Knowledge Base     233
    Inference Engine     233
    User Interface     234
    Blackboard (Workplace)     234
    Explanation Subsystem (Justifier)     235
    Knowledge-Refining System     235
Knowledge Engineering Process     236
    1 Knowledge Acquisition     237
    2 Knowledge Verification and Validation     239
    3 Knowledge Representation     240
    4 Inferencing     241
    5 Explanation and Justification     247
Benefits and Limitations of ES     249
    Benefits of Using ES     249
    Limitations and Shortcomings of ES     253
    Critical Success Factors for ES     254
Case-Based Reasoning     255
    The Basic Idea of CBR     255
    The Concept of a Case in CBR     257
    The Process of CBR     258
    Example: Loan Evaluation Using CBR     260
    Benefits and Usability of CBR     260
    Issues and Applications of CBR     261
Conclusion     266
References     267
Chapter 6  The Future of Business Analytics     269
Big Data Analytics     270
    Where Does the Big Data Come From?     271
    The Vs That Define Big Data     273
    Fundamental Concepts of Big Data     276
    Big Data Technologies     280
    Data Scientist     282
    Big Data and Stream Analytics     284
Deep Learning     289
    An Introduction to Deep Learning     291
    Deep Neural Networks     295
    Convolutional Neural Networks     296
    Recurrent Networks and Long Short-Term Memory Networks     301
    Computer Frameworks for Implementation of Deep Learning     304
Cognitive Computing     308
    How Does Cognitive Computing Work?     310
    How Does Cognitive Computing Differ from AI?     311
Conclusion     312
References     313
Index     315

Updates

Submit Errata

More Information

InformIT Promotional Mailings & Special Offers

I would like to receive exclusive offers and hear about products from InformIT and its family of brands. I can unsubscribe at any time.

Overview


Pearson Education, Inc., 221 River Street, Hoboken, New Jersey 07030, (Pearson) presents this site to provide information about products and services that can be purchased through this site.

This privacy notice provides an overview of our commitment to privacy and describes how we collect, protect, use and share personal information collected through this site. Please note that other Pearson websites and online products and services have their own separate privacy policies.

Collection and Use of Information


To conduct business and deliver products and services, Pearson collects and uses personal information in several ways in connection with this site, including:

Questions and Inquiries

For inquiries and questions, we collect the inquiry or question, together with name, contact details (email address, phone number and mailing address) and any other additional information voluntarily submitted to us through a Contact Us form or an email. We use this information to address the inquiry and respond to the question.

Online Store

For orders and purchases placed through our online store on this site, we collect order details, name, institution name and address (if applicable), email address, phone number, shipping and billing addresses, credit/debit card information, shipping options and any instructions. We use this information to complete transactions, fulfill orders, communicate with individuals placing orders or visiting the online store, and for related purposes.

Surveys

Pearson may offer opportunities to provide feedback or participate in surveys, including surveys evaluating Pearson products, services or sites. Participation is voluntary. Pearson collects information requested in the survey questions and uses the information to evaluate, support, maintain and improve products, services or sites, develop new products and services, conduct educational research and for other purposes specified in the survey.

Contests and Drawings

Occasionally, we may sponsor a contest or drawing. Participation is optional. Pearson collects name, contact information and other information specified on the entry form for the contest or drawing to conduct the contest or drawing. Pearson may collect additional personal information from the winners of a contest or drawing in order to award the prize and for tax reporting purposes, as required by law.

Newsletters

If you have elected to receive email newsletters or promotional mailings and special offers but want to unsubscribe, simply email information@informit.com.

Service Announcements

On rare occasions it is necessary to send out a strictly service related announcement. For instance, if our service is temporarily suspended for maintenance we might send users an email. Generally, users may not opt-out of these communications, though they can deactivate their account information. However, these communications are not promotional in nature.

Customer Service

We communicate with users on a regular basis to provide requested services and in regard to issues relating to their account we reply via email or phone in accordance with the users' wishes when a user submits their information through our Contact Us form.

Other Collection and Use of Information


Application and System Logs

Pearson automatically collects log data to help ensure the delivery, availability and security of this site. Log data may include technical information about how a user or visitor connected to this site, such as browser type, type of computer/device, operating system, internet service provider and IP address. We use this information for support purposes and to monitor the health of the site, identify problems, improve service, detect unauthorized access and fraudulent activity, prevent and respond to security incidents and appropriately scale computing resources.

Web Analytics

Pearson may use third party web trend analytical services, including Google Analytics, to collect visitor information, such as IP addresses, browser types, referring pages, pages visited and time spent on a particular site. While these analytical services collect and report information on an anonymous basis, they may use cookies to gather web trend information. The information gathered may enable Pearson (but not the third party web trend services) to link information with application and system log data. Pearson uses this information for system administration and to identify problems, improve service, detect unauthorized access and fraudulent activity, prevent and respond to security incidents, appropriately scale computing resources and otherwise support and deliver this site and its services.

Cookies and Related Technologies

This site uses cookies and similar technologies to personalize content, measure traffic patterns, control security, track use and access of information on this site, and provide interest-based messages and advertising. Users can manage and block the use of cookies through their browser. Disabling or blocking certain cookies may limit the functionality of this site.

Do Not Track

This site currently does not respond to Do Not Track signals.

Security


Pearson uses appropriate physical, administrative and technical security measures to protect personal information from unauthorized access, use and disclosure.

Children


This site is not directed to children under the age of 13.

Marketing


Pearson may send or direct marketing communications to users, provided that

  • Pearson will not use personal information collected or processed as a K-12 school service provider for the purpose of directed or targeted advertising.
  • Such marketing is consistent with applicable law and Pearson's legal obligations.
  • Pearson will not knowingly direct or send marketing communications to an individual who has expressed a preference not to receive marketing.
  • Where required by applicable law, express or implied consent to marketing exists and has not been withdrawn.

Pearson may provide personal information to a third party service provider on a restricted basis to provide marketing solely on behalf of Pearson or an affiliate or customer for whom Pearson is a service provider. Marketing preferences may be changed at any time.

Correcting/Updating Personal Information


If a user's personally identifiable information changes (such as your postal address or email address), we provide a way to correct or update that user's personal data provided to us. This can be done on the Account page. If a user no longer desires our service and desires to delete his or her account, please contact us at customer-service@informit.com and we will process the deletion of a user's account.

Choice/Opt-out


Users can always make an informed choice as to whether they should proceed with certain services offered by InformIT. If you choose to remove yourself from our mailing list(s) simply visit the following page and uncheck any communication you no longer want to receive: www.informit.com/u.aspx.

Sale of Personal Information


Pearson does not rent or sell personal information in exchange for any payment of money.

While Pearson does not sell personal information, as defined in Nevada law, Nevada residents may email a request for no sale of their personal information to NevadaDesignatedRequest@pearson.com.

Supplemental Privacy Statement for California Residents


California residents should read our Supplemental privacy statement for California residents in conjunction with this Privacy Notice. The Supplemental privacy statement for California residents explains Pearson's commitment to comply with California law and applies to personal information of California residents collected in connection with this site and the Services.

Sharing and Disclosure


Pearson may disclose personal information, as follows:

  • As required by law.
  • With the consent of the individual (or their parent, if the individual is a minor)
  • In response to a subpoena, court order or legal process, to the extent permitted or required by law
  • To protect the security and safety of individuals, data, assets and systems, consistent with applicable law
  • In connection the sale, joint venture or other transfer of some or all of its company or assets, subject to the provisions of this Privacy Notice
  • To investigate or address actual or suspected fraud or other illegal activities
  • To exercise its legal rights, including enforcement of the Terms of Use for this site or another contract
  • To affiliated Pearson companies and other companies and organizations who perform work for Pearson and are obligated to protect the privacy of personal information consistent with this Privacy Notice
  • To a school, organization, company or government agency, where Pearson collects or processes the personal information in a school setting or on behalf of such organization, company or government agency.

Links


This web site contains links to other sites. Please be aware that we are not responsible for the privacy practices of such other sites. We encourage our users to be aware when they leave our site and to read the privacy statements of each and every web site that collects Personal Information. This privacy statement applies solely to information collected by this web site.

Requests and Contact


Please contact us about this Privacy Notice or if you have any requests or questions relating to the privacy of your personal information.

Changes to this Privacy Notice


We may revise this Privacy Notice through an updated posting. We will identify the effective date of the revision in the posting. Often, updates are made to provide greater clarity or to comply with changes in regulatory requirements. If the updates involve material changes to the collection, protection, use or disclosure of Personal Information, Pearson will provide notice of the change through a conspicuous notice on this site or other appropriate way. Continued use of the site after the effective date of a posted revision evidences acceptance. Please contact us if you have questions or concerns about the Privacy Notice or any objection to any revisions.

Last Update: November 17, 2020