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Future of Technology Management and the Business Environment, The: Lessons on Innovation, Disruption, and Strategy Execution
- By Alfred A. Marcus
- Published Nov 26, 2015 by Pearson FT Press.
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Description
- Copyright 2016
- Dimensions: 7" x 9-1/8"
- Pages: 304
- Edition: 1st
- eBook
- ISBN-10: 0-13-399620-4
- ISBN-13: 978-0-13-399620-3
ANTICIPATE AND SHAPE TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTION...INSTEAD OF BEING VICTIMIZED BY IT
- Gain powerful insights for crafting strategy in technology-rich industries, from IT to finance, and healthcare to energy
- Understand the massive social impacts of technology, and how today’s societal divisions shape your opportunities to innovate
- For everyone who must manage new technologies and respond to technological disruption
From biotech to nanotech to big data, the pace of technological disruption continues to accelerate. Now, leading business strategy expert Alfred Marcus offers powerful tools for anticipating technological change, and managing the threats and opportunities it poses.
Through insightful case studies, Marcus offers strategic advice for overcoming the pitfalls associated with deploying emerging technologies, or responding to others who use them to compete with you.
Marcus illuminates the ongoing interplay between technological change and wider societal trends, helping you recognize new opportunities created by these interactions, and maximize the upside—both for your company and the broader society.
Whether you’re an executive or strategist, technical professional or MBA student, this guide will sharpen your focus on the future so you can navigate radical technological-driven change—wherever it leads.
Emerging technologies offer immense promise for generating growth, profitability, and prosperity. But they face major obstacles to commercialization, and have environmental and social costs that must be carefully managed to maximize the benefit and mitigate the harm.
This book is about the foresight and strategic actions required for these new technologies to play a positive rather than negative role. Alfred Marcus illuminates their potential, reviews the risky decisions needed to transform potential into reality, and discusses how technologies might be used to ameliorate social problems rather than exacerbate them.
Marcus begins with insights about the strategy of technological innovation, using case studies to show why these innovations can fail, and offering methods for dealing with uncertain outcomes. Next, using examples such as the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, he illustrates how to better manage the dangers associated with technologies. He then turns to technology’s impact on three key societal conflicts: that between young and old, rich and poor, and the potential for scarcity and abundance in energy production. Finally, he focuses on how several pairs of companies, including Intel and AMD, Dell and Acer, and Amazon and Barnes & Noble, have managed technological disruption in their industries, and the difficult challenges they now face in overcoming these challenges.
Whether you’re an executive, manager, or student, you’ll gain powerful insights into innovation, strategy, execution, technology management, and the fastchanging business environment in which technological change takes place.
Sample Content
Table of Contents
Introduction 1
The Next Set of Breakthroughs 2
The Information Revolution 2
Medical Technologies 2
Genetics 2
Alternative Energy 3
Artificial Intelligence 3
Material Sciences and Nanotechnology 3
What This Book Is About 3
Part I: Technology and Strategy 4
Part II: Managing Danger 5
Part III: The Environment of Technology 5
Part IV: Coping with Technological Disruptions 6
Endnotes 8
PART I: TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGY 9
Chapter 1: Technological Disruptions 11
The Powers of the Mind 11
Information Technology (IT) 12
Medical Technologies 13
Genetics 15
Alternative Energy 16
Artificial Intelligence, Material Sciences, and Nanotechnology 16
The Challenge of Commercialization 18
Endnotes 18
Chapter 2: Commercialization’s Obstacles 19
Fumbling the Future at Xerox: IT 19
Medical Technology: Cochlear Implants 20
Basic Research in Diverse Labs 21
Breakthroughs in Other Disciplines 21
A Highly Committed Champion 22
Multiple Developmental Paths 22
Private Firms’ Failure to Cooperate 22
Professional Endorsement 22
FDA Approval 23
Lack of Enthusiasm from the User Community 23
High Costs 23
Safety and Efficacy Concerns 23
Auxiliary Services 24
Withdrawal 24
New Entrants 24
Genetics: Agricultural Productivity 24
Sustainability as a Corporate Goal 25
Opposition 25
Rapid U.S. Market Penetration 25
More Promised Progress 26
Government Restrictions 26
Environmentalists’ Criticism 26
Competition from DuPont 27
Alternative Energy: The Electric Car 27
Less Pollution and Foreign Oil 28
Range and Fossil Fuels 28
1990s’ Failure 29
Hybrid Successes 29
Weak Plug-In Sales 29
Battery Subsidies from the U.S. Government 29
A Solution from Tesla and Panasonic 30
Not Yet Affordable 30
A New Business Model 31
The Slow and Arduous Path to Commercialization 31
Why Xerox Missed Its Opportunity: Game Theory 32
Setbacks at Many Points 33
Uncertain Government Support 34
Project Management Insufficient to Overcome These Problems 35
The Inclination to Undertake Safe Projects 36
Technologies Push and Markets Pull 36
Determination, Will, and Persistence 37
Endnotes 37
Chapter 3: Hedging the Uncertainty 39
Trends 40
Expert Opinion 40
Historical Analogies 41
Industry Analysis 42
Scenarios 42
Surprises 43
Taking Notice of the Periphery 43
Romances, Tragedies, and Comedies 44
The Narrative Details 44
Applying Scenario Logic to Technology Commercialization 45
Strategic Adjustments 46
Hedging 47
Gamble on the Most Probable Outcome 47
Take the Robust Route 48
Delay Until Further Clarity Emerges 49
Commit with Fallbacks 49
Shape the Future 50
Conclusion 50
Endnotes 50
PART II: MANAGING DANGER 53
Chapter 4: Dealing with Danger 55
Bhopal: What Went Wrong 55
Highly Toxic Chemicals 55
Weak Infrastructure 56
An Uncontrolled Explosion 56
Nonfunctioning Backups 57
Trapped Victims 57
Organizational Shortcomings 57
Warnings Ignored 58
The Price of the Accident 58
The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: What Went Wrong 59
Beyond Petroleum 59
Tar Sands Processing 59
Explosion in Texas City and Oil Leaks in Alaska 59
The Spill 60
The Many Mistakes 60
Inherently Dangerous Technologies 61
Dilemmas in Managing Dangerous Technologies 63
Individual Cognitive Limits 64
Experts’ Cognitive Limits 64
Organizations’ Cognitive Limits 64
How Much a Life Is Worth 65
Inferences from Animal Studies to Humans 65
Conclusion 66
Endnotes 66
Chapter 5: Laws of Liability 69
Vioxx: What Went Wrong? 69
Merck’s Positive Reputation 70
The Search for a Blockbuster Drug Without Gastrointestinal Complications 70
Early Warnings 70
Failure to Communicate 71
The FDA’s Required Warning 71
More Criticism 72
Voluntary Recall 72
Thousands of Suits 72
Criminal Charges 73
Johnson & Johnson’s Hip Replacement: What Went Wrong? 73
A Paragon of Social Responsibility 74
The Acquisition of DePuy 74
All-Metal Replacements 74
Design Problems 75
FDA Investigations 75
A Voluntary Recall 75
Suits Against the Company 76
The Reimbursement Plan 76
The Laws of Liability 77
Evolution of the Law 77
Classic Tort Law 78
Assumption of Risk 78
Punitive Action 78
Strict Liability 79
The Justification for Strict Liability 79
Further Movement from a Fault-Based System 80
Refinements of the Laws of Liability 81
Conclusion 81
Endnotes 82
PART III: THE ENVIRONMENT OF TECHNOLOGY 85
Chapter 6: Old, Young, and Global Security 87
The Rise of the Elderly 87
Declining Fertility 88
Economic Impacts 90
Technology to Assist the Elderly 91
A Cure for Alzheimer’s 91
Reversing Aging 93
Among the Young: Hope and Disillusion 96
Meaningful Work 97
What Next 100
Diminishing Youth Bulges 102
Technology to Combat Terror 106
Conclusion 108
Endnotes 108
Chapter 7: Rich, Poor, and Global Inequality 111
Trends 111
Within Country Gaps 112
Between-Country Gaps 112
The U.S. Wealth Gap 113
The Rise of Neoliberalism 115
Technology at the Top of the Pyramid 117
Sophisticated Models 117
What Hedge Funds Do 118
Only for the Already Wealthy 119
Renaissance Technologies 120
Technology at the Bottom of the Pyramid 121
Telecommunications 122
Potable Water 123
Health Services 124
Nutrition and Crop Protection 124
Energy 125
Critiques 125
Conclusion 126
Endnotes 127
Chapter 8: Abundance, Scarcity, and Global Sustainability 129
Fossil Fuels 130
Oil Price Declines 130
Hydraulic Fracking 132
Tar Sands 133
Offshore Recovery 134
Cleaner Energy 135
Building Energy 136
Industrial and Commercial 138
Solar 138
Wind 140
Energy Storage 142
Biofuels 143
Conclusion 145
Endnotes 145
PART IV: COPING WITH TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTIONS 147
Chapter 9: Missing the Boat on Mobile Technology: Intel and AMD 149
The Mobile Revolution 149
The Battles Between Intel and AMD 152
Memory 152
Microprocessors 153
The Sub-Zero Segment 153
Speed and Continued Price Wars 154
Branching Out 155
The Hammer 156
Global Antitrust 157
Graphics and Other Products 157
Divesting Manufacturing 158
Searching for New Markets 158
ARM Architecture 159
Mobile 159
Gaming 159
Mounting Mobile Losses 160
New Leadership at AMD 160
Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) 162
The Internet of Things (IOT) 162
Smart Glasses and Augmented Reality 163
Risks Ahead 164
Conclusion 164
Glossary of Computer Terminology 165
Endnotes 165
Chapter 10: From Mass Customizing to Mass Commodity: Dell and Acer 167
Financial Woes 168
An Industry in Decline 170
The Fat Years: Dell’s Ascent 170
A Competency in Mass Customization 171
Gateway Abandons the Direct Model 173
The Lean Years: Michael Dell’s Resignation 174
Acer’s Acquisition of Gateway 176
Dell’s Plans for a Recovery 177
The Enterprise Market 181
Becoming a Private Company 182
Acer’s Efforts at Revitalization 183
Notebooks 183
Smartphones 183
Free Cloud 185
IOT 185
Conclusion 185
Endnotes 186
Chapter 11: Finding Growth and Profitability in Bookselling: Barnes & Noble and Amazon 189
Barnes & Noble and the Superstore 189
Amazon and Internet Commerce 191
Amazon’s Reinvention 192
Barnes & Noble’s Focus on Books 194
Sinking Profits 195
Amazon’s Fluid Identity 195
Profiting from the Cloud 197
Barnes & Noble’s Decision to Split Up 198
Spinning Off the Nook 198
Spinning Off the College Division 199
How Attractive Was Bookselling? 200
Sales Trends 200
Reading Habits 201
Leisure Time Choices 201
Digital Devices 202
The Publishers 202
Wholesale 203
The Big Five 203
The Spat with Amazon 204
Conclusion 205
Endnotes 205
Chapter 12: Escaping the Middle: Best Buy and Charles Schwab 209
The Evolution of Best Buy 210
Concept One: 1983–1989 211
Concept Two: 1990–2001 211
Concept Three: 2002–2007 212
The Aftermath of the Financial Meltdown 214
The Evolution of Charles Schwab 214
Discounting 214
High Net Worth Clients 215
A Category of One 215
The Affluent of the Future 216
Following Customers 216
New Challenges 217
Competition in Consumer Electronics 217
Online 217
Showrooming 218
Competition Among Discount Brokers 218
Innovation Dilemmas 219
Major Industry Players 219
Best Buy’s Comeback Plans 220
Transforming E-Commerce 220
Cost Savings and Product Innovation 221
Enhancing the Internet Platform: Charles Schwab 222
Ranking the Platforms 223
The Robo-Advisor 223
Conclusion 224
Endnotes 225
Chapter 13: Content for a New Age: Disney and Time Warner 229
Vertical Integration: Disney 230
Vertical Integration: Time Warner 231
Mergers, Acquisitions, and Divestitures 232
The Disney-Capital Cities Merger 235
ABC 236
The Iger Era 237
The AOL-Time Warner Merger 237
Trying to Revive AOL 238
Slimming Down 239
HBO’s Edginess and Success 240
Disney’s Dominance 241
Cable Channels 241
The Studios 242
Internet Initiatives and Cable’s Abandonment 243
Losing Young People 244
Conclusion 245
Endnotes 246
Final Thoughts 249
The Future of Technology Management and the Business Environment:
Lessons on Innovation, Disruption, and Strategy Execution 249
Index 251